Prime Day Sales Down 40%? Early Results
Prime Day 2025 launched with a twist: four full days of deals instead of the usual two. But early signals from third-party analysts suggest mixed results with one report suggesting sales on day 1 were down over 40%.
40% Decline in Day 1 Sales Reported
Momentum Commerce, managing Amazon sales totaling roughly $7 billion annually, reported a 41% drop in Day 1 sales compared to 2024. Their early data showed a 14% decline in the first four hours. Still, they’re projecting 9.1% year-over-year growth overall—down from the 14% they forecasted back in June.
They attribute the sluggish start to a shift in shopper behavior. Consumers appear to be taking a “wait and see” approach, hoping to catch better deals across the extended sale period.
How This Year Compares to Past Prime Days
Historically, Prime Day has delivered double-digit growth year over year. In 2023, Amazon reported over $12.7 billion in Prime Day sales—a 6.1% increase from the year prior. By 2024, that jumped again as more third-party sellers participated and deep discounting returned post-pandemic.
But 2025's shift to a four-day event changes the dynamic. With more time to browse, shoppers aren’t rushing to buy on Day 1 like they used to. That has major implications for how sellers should pace their promotions and inventory planning throughout the event.
Less Discounts, Most Items Under $20
One big theme this year: consumers are leaning into essentials and lower-ticket items. Adobe’s data shows two-thirds of Day 1 purchases were under $20, including household goods like dish soap and hydration packs. The average household spend was $106—slightly down from $110 last year.
Momentum Commerce also noted that average discounts were smaller—21% this year vs. 24% last year—likely a result of ongoing trade policy uncertainty and margin pressure from tariffs. As a result, sellers are being more conservative with pricing and inventory.
From Two Days to Four: Why the Change?
Amazon first introduced Prime Day back in 2015 as a one-day sales event celebrating the company’s 20th anniversary. It’s since evolved into one of the biggest e-commerce events of the year, rivaling Black Friday and Cyber Monday in sales volume. The format has shifted over time—going from one day to two, and in 2025, expanding to a full four-day window.
This year’s expansion appears strategic. More time spreads out order volume (a win for logistics), encourages deeper engagement, and mirrors moves from competitors like Walmart and Target, who have also extended their sales windows. But it’s also led to slower early results, as shoppers wait to pounce on better deals later in the event.
Amazon Pushback & Broader Market Trends
Amazon pushed back against Momentum’s claims, calling their numbers “highly inaccurate” due to a lack of full access to internal data. Meanwhile, Adobe Analytics offered a different story—reporting U.S. online sales were up nearly 10% year-over-year on Day 1, with a total of $7.9 billion in spending.
Adobe projects total sales across the four-day window will reach $23.8 billion. And it’s not just Amazon benefiting—retailers like Walmart, Target, and Wayfair are running parallel sales events, contributing to a broader ecommerce lift.
Amazon Does Historically Does Not Release Prime Day Numbers
Despite the pushback from Amazon, they do not historically release a lot of data related to Prime Day performance, even after the event has concluded. Instead they rely on ambiguous wording such as after 2024's Prime Day event when they simply stated that it was ‘their biggest shopping event ever' leaving observers to guess what exactly that meant.
Conclusion
Prime Day 2025 is shaping up to be a more complex beast. Slower Day 1 numbers might scare some, but a four-day format could mean simply mean that consumers are waiting until later in the event to make purchases.
Unfortunately, given Amazon's opaque approach to releasing numbers around the event, observers may be left guessing the true results of 2025's Prime Day.
