Iran Opens Hormuz Strait Selectively as Shipping Traffic Remains at 10% of Pre-Conflict Levels
In the midst of escalating conflicts in the Middle East and heightened global shipping tensions, the Strait of Hormuz shows signs of limited “relaxation.” On March 28, Thailand, Pakistan, and Malaysia confirmed they have reached diplomatic agreements with Iran, allowing some of their vessels to pass through this critical energy transport choke point.
Agreements with Iran
Thailand has secured an agreement with Iran permitting its oil tankers to safely traverse the Strait of Hormuz, aiming to alleviate domestic oil price pressures. Meanwhile, Pakistan has been granted permission for an additional 20 vessels, with expectations of two ships passing daily. Malaysia also confirmed that several previously stranded tankers have been released, although they must wait for an appropriate “passage window.”
Despite these developments, the passage does not signify a return to normalcy. The Strait of Hormuz remains under strict control, with Iran implementing a transit mechanism requiring ships to submit complete documentation, obtain passage permits, and navigate designated routes under guidance or escort.
Current Shipping Conditions
Shipping data from March 28 indicates only a few vessels departed the Persian Gulf, primarily navigating along the Iranian-controlled side, keeping overall traffic low. Official statements reveal that Iran has not fully closed the Strait of Hormuz but has adopted a “selective opening” strategy. The Iranian Foreign Minister clarified that the strait is not closed to all ships but imposes restrictions on “hostile countries and their allies,” while allowing passage for “non-hostile” nations under certain conditions.
This situation implies that current passage relies more on individual diplomatic coordination with Iran rather than a restoration of general commercial shipping order.
Impact on Global Shipping
Since the conflict began, the volume of traffic through the Strait of Hormuz has significantly decreased. Originally handling about 20% of global oil and liquefied natural gas transport, recent ship traffic has dropped by approximately 90% compared to pre-conflict levels. Although some ships might not be fully accounted for due to deactivated AIS signals, the actual traffic is slightly higher, yet the overall transport function remains severely limited, driving up international oil and gas prices and exacerbating market volatility.
In response, the international community is attempting to implement relief measures. The United Nations has established a special task force to coordinate with relevant parties, prioritizing the transport of humanitarian goods. Iran has also expressed willingness to assist humanitarian vessels in safely navigating the strait under the UN framework. However, the resumption of large-scale commercial shipping is widely believed to depend on a de-escalation of the conflict.
Future Outlook
Analysts suggest that the Strait of Hormuz is likely to enter a “semi-open” state, where a coordination mechanism allows limited passage for certain countries and vessels. Although this model is practically feasible, it carries significant uncertainty and presents considerable risks for shipping companies. Major shipping firms, including Maersk, remain cautious, doubting the short-term restoration of normal navigation.
Additionally, regional maritime security risks continue to spill over. Iran has recently warned that if the situation escalates further, it may extend its reach to the Red Sea's vital passage—the Bab el-Mandeb Strait. This strait connects the Red Sea to the Indian Ocean and serves as a crucial link to the Suez Canal. Any disruption could create a “double disturbance” with the Strait of Hormuz, exerting greater pressure on global shipping and energy supplies.
Red Sea Route Challenges
Data indicates that due to the situation in Hormuz, some tankers have rerouted through the Red Sea, with a noticeable increase in crude oil exports via Saudi Arabia's Yanbu port. However, the Red Sea route itself faces security challenges, with rising risks for vessel passage.
Overall, the approval for ships from three countries to pass through the Strait of Hormuz signals some easing, yet it remains closer to “case-by-case passage” rather than a full restoration of the shipping lane. The strait remains under intense control and uncertainty, compounded by the ongoing regional conflict, posing complex and sustained challenges to the global shipping system.
Final Thoughts
The recent agreements between Iran and Thailand, Pakistan, and Malaysia offer a glimmer of hope for easing tensions in the Strait of Hormuz. However, the situation remains precarious, with significant risks and uncertainties for global shipping and energy markets.
As the international community seeks solutions, the path to restoring normalcy in this critical maritime corridor will likely depend on diplomatic efforts and conflict resolution. Until then, shipping companies and global markets must navigate these turbulent waters with caution.
