US diesel averaged $6.3187 per gallon on October 19, roughly 74% above a year earlier, according to AAA's daily price table.

FedEx's published Ground fuel percentage did not rise that week. The gap between those two facts is the thing to understand before you cut prices on the strength of a tariff refund or cheaper inventory.

Diesel Is Expensive and Below September's Peak

AAA's comparison shows diesel at $3.6308 a year earlier and $6.2665 a week earlier. The October 19 reading sat slightly above the prior week but below the September 22 high of $6.5276.

Those figures describe the fuel environment. They do not tell you what your carrier charged, whether your negotiated terms changed, or how much your 3PL passed through. A national pump-price average is neither a parcel quote nor an ocean-freight benchmark.

Applying a 74% increase to last year's shipping budget would confuse the price of one input with the delivered price of a service.

The Carrier Schedule Moves on Its Own Timeline

For October 19 through 25, FedEx lists Ground and Home Delivery fuel at 28.75%, unchanged from the prior week. Domestic package air fell from 32.25% to 32%. Export and import held at 44.5%.

These are surcharges, not increases to the total label price. FedEx bases Ground fuel on a weekly EIA diesel measure and other package services on jet fuel, with a reporting lag. Your customer agreement controls.

UPS also uses weekly index-based adjustments effective Mondays.

Compare the applicable shipment-week schedule against your invoice. Do not substitute today's AAA reading into a carrier's formula.

Fuel Applies to More Than Transportation

FedEx calculates Ground fuel on the net package rate plus specified applicable charges, including residential, delivery-area, and certain demand surcharges. That is different from multiplying fuel by the base transportation amount alone.

Take $10 in net transportation plus $5 in fuel-eligible accessorial charges. At 28.75%, fuel adds $4.3125, for $19.3125 before other charges.

Applying fuel only to the $10 would produce $17.875. The forecasting error is about $1.44 per package, or roughly $1,438 across 1,000 identical shipments. Your actual fuel basis, discounts, and rounding will differ.

Which packages trigger holiday demand surcharges identifies the relevant charge categories. Then check whether those charges also enter your account's fuel calculation.

A Refund Is Not a Recurring Cost Reduction

Say a business receives a $30,000 tariff refund and expects 30,000 future orders. Spreading the refund across those orders creates an apparent $1-per-order allowance.

A permanent $1 price cut continues after that money is gone. If transportation later costs another $0.60 per order, the business has committed to a discount while its recurring margin deteriorated.

Keep recovered historical duty payments separate from the expected duty and delivery costs on replacement inventory. Only a confirmed recurring cost reduction supports an ongoing price change without another source of margin.

Audit the Invoice Before Changing the Offer

Pull recent shipments by service, destination, finished-carton dimensions, and label-purchasing account. Separate transportation, fuel, residential, delivery-area, handling, and demand charges. Ask your 3PL whether quoted postage includes these or adds them later.

For imports, separate the international movement from domestic delivery. Ocean freight charges beyond the headline quote covers that separation, though its historical price examples are not current.

Recalculate contribution on your highest-volume products using the shipping account that will actually fulfill the order. Before approving a price cut, identify which savings recur on the next purchase order and which disappear once a refund is spent.