UPS published a revised US fuel-surcharge schedule taking effect November 2, covering Ground, Ground Saver, and domestic Air. It arrives alongside a TD Cowen/AFS Freight Index forecast putting fourth-quarter Ground parcel pricing 5.8% above last year and Express pricing 13.8% higher.

The useful part is not the word “record.” It is the formula. UPS changed the table converting a public fuel index into a percentage added to eligible charges, which means your cost can rise without the box, service, or destination changing.

What Changed in the Table

The new UPS schedule keeps Ground and Ground Saver tied to the Energy Information Administration's national average on-highway diesel price, still changing weekly on Mondays.

Under the table effective November 2, a diesel price from $6.25 to below $6.34 maps to a 30% Ground surcharge. The EIA's October 19 reading was $6.276 per gallon.

That is an illustration, not a November 2 quote. UPS says the applicable week uses the most recently released index, so the actual percentage can move before the new schedule starts.

Reuters reported UPS's then-current Ground fuel surcharge at 29.5% around the same diesel level. Holding the index inside that $6.25 to $6.34 band, the new table implies a 0.5 percentage-point increase.

That sounds small until you apply it to the right base. The surcharge is not necessarily calculated only on the advertised transportation rate. UPS says fuel can apply to transportation and certain accessorial, value-added, and other charges. Your contract and service determine the exact basis.

The Forecast Is an Index, Not Your Quote

The October 26 parcel-cost report draws on anonymized data from 1,800 shippers. Its 5.8% Ground and 13.8% Express figures are year-over-year index forecasts, not announced general rate increases, and not a promise that any account moves by those percentages.

Your result depends on package dimensions, zone, service, residential status, negotiated discount, and surcharge treatment. A seller shipping one-pound regional cartons sees a very different increase from a brand sending oversize furniture across eight zones.

How fuel formulas reach the final parcel invoice covers the mechanics. The new development is the November 2 table plus the fresh Q4 forecast. Both are inputs to a new model, not substitutes for your billing data.

Holiday Charges Stack on One Shipment

UPS's residential demand surcharge began October 25. FedEx's comparable residential schedule began October 26. Bulky and nonstandard packages entered their holiday windows earlier.

A single package can carry base transportation, residential, delivery-area, additional-handling, demand, and fuel charges simultaneously. UPS and FedEx holiday demand-surcharge windows shows which categories and dates need separate lines in your forecast.

Take an eligible shipment with $20 of charges in the fuel basis. Moving from 29.5% to 30% adds 10 cents. Across 20,000 identical shipments, that is $2,000.

If fuel applies to more accessorials than your model assumes, the miss gets larger. That is arithmetic for illustration, not a UPS quote.

What to Do Before November 2

Pull your last four weekly carrier invoices and export package-level charges. Separate net transportation, residential, delivery-area, handling, demand, and fuel amounts. Do not rely on a blended “postage” field from a 3PL.

Re-rate your top 20 shipping profiles under three cases: the current invoice, the November 2 table at the latest available EIA band, and a stress case one band higher. Run the same cartons through FedEx, USPS, and any regional carrier you can actually operationalize.

Do not move volume on headline percentages. A second carrier can cut one surcharge while weakening a volume discount or adding split-shipment and support costs. Compare delivered cost, service coverage, damage rates, and refund exposure.

UPS says the revised percentages appear online October 29. Check then, and reconcile the first invoices for shipments tendered November 2 onward.

The number to monitor is the effective shipment-week percentage on your bill, not a diesel headline copied into a spreadsheet.